arXiv AI

arXiv:2610.29533v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Autoregressive (AR) models have proved effective for zero-shot prediction from longitudinal electronic health records, but impose strictly sequential generation on trajectories containing temporally clustered and interdependent clinical events. We investigate block-based masked diffusion (BD) as an alternative on MIMIC-IV under matched tokenisation, context length, model capacity, and evaluation conditions. Across block sizes, BD exhibits a clear quality--efficiency trade-off, with small-block configurations retaining much of the predictive performance of AR while enabling substantially faster inference. A representative $B{=}8$ configuration achieves approximately $1.43\times$ faster evaluation. Although generative rollout remains below AR in most settings, frozen linear probes on BD and AR representations achieve near-identical performance across clinical prediction tasks, indicating that BD learns comparably informative clinical representations. Increasing the denoising budget yields diminishing returns, while alternative decoding strategies provide limited gains. Overall, our results show that block diffusion is a viable and computationally attractive approach to longitudinal EHR modelling, with further improvements in iterative decoding offering a promising route toward closing the remaining generative performance gap.

arXiv:2610.29528v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Masked language modelling (MLM) is the dominant pretraining objective for transformer encoders applied to longitudinal electronic health records (EHRs). However, reconstructing individual events may overemphasise noisy or weakly informative observations and does not explicitly encourage learning higher-level patient states. Joint-Embedding Predictive Architectures (JEPAs) instead learn by predicting representations in latent space and have shown strong performance in a variety of domains. In this paper, we investigate to what extent JEPA can be adapted to EHR sequence representation. Our empirical investigation using MIMIC-IV shows that although all three of our JEPA formulations train stably without representational collapse, they consistently underperform standard MLM. We find that target size, not target heterogeneity, increases prediction error, yet reducing the target size does not recover downstream performance. This suggests that stable latent prediction alone is insufficient for competitive EHR representation learning and highlights the challenge of defining clinically meaningful latent targets for EHR.

arXiv:2610.29518v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: While Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting improves the reasoning performance of large language models (LLMs), recent studies have shown that final answers do not always depend on the generated rationales. In particular, LLMs may rely on query-specific shortcuts rather than the information provided by their reasoning steps. In this paper, we investigate whether context-aware decoding (CAD), an existing contrastive decoding method, can mitigate such shortcut behavior when applied to CoT reasoning. We study this application as Rationale Contrastive Decoding (RCD), which contrasts the next-token distributions conditioned on the query with and without its rationale, amplifying tokens whose likelihood increases due to the rationale. We provide a theoretical interpretation of this decoding rule via a KL-regularized reward-maximization objective. Experiments across five reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that RCD improves answer accuracy over standard CoT. Furthermore, intervention analyses using ground-truth and random rationales reveal that RCD increases the behavioral dependence of final answers on the rationale content. Our findings suggest that contrastive decoding offers a simple, training-free approach to mitigating query shortcuts.

arXiv:2610.29507v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Temporal reasoning is widely assumed to decompose into two modes: temporal arithmetic (date and time calculations), and temporal semantics (understanding temporal and causal relations). This dichotomy shapes how benchmarks are designed, how models are trained, and how progress is measured, yet its empirical validity has never been directly tested. We provide two lines of evidence that challenge it. First, we test whether tasks labelled as arithmetic or semantic by the benchmarks support transferable gains within their purported mode. Finetuning on these subsets yields predominantly dataset-specific gains ($+6.8$ to $+23.1$ percentage points), while transfer to a different dataset in the same mode ranges from $-3.2$ to $+1.1$ percentage points. Across the two benchmark families used in the transfer analysis, this pattern provides little evidence of coherent, transferable temporal abilities. Second, using cognitive-demand-based model evaluation, we examine which capabilities actually drive performance on these benchmarks. We find that quantitative and logical reasoning, the assumed proxies for temporal arithmetic and temporal semantics, are not the primary drivers; knowledge is. Together, these findings show that current temporal reasoning benchmarks do not cleanly realise the arithmetic-semantics distinction and instead largely reward models for remembering how time typically works.

arXiv:2610.29504v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Time series foundation models (TSFMs) perform unevenly across forecasting tasks. Recent work uses agentic model orchestration (AMO) to select or combine TSFMs, often outperforming individual forecasters. Yet these gains may reflect stronger or more complementary candidates rather than better orchestration. To disentangle these effects, we introduce FairAMO, a controlled evaluation protocol with frozen candidate forecasts. Experiments on GIFT-Eval show that AMO improves accuracy, but its gains are bounded by the candidate TSFMs. The best orchestrators reduce MASE by less than 6% relative to the best single TSFM across all tasks. These gains depend on complementarity (different candidates excel on different tasks) rather than the number of candidates. Adding members yields diminishing returns, and a redundant member can erase these gains. The value of historical evidence also saturates quickly. A few recent windows capture all gains, and further history adds none. These findings separate system-level forecasting gains from the contribution of orchestration itself.

arXiv:2610.29498v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Process reward models (PRMs) provide fine-grained supervision for multi-step reasoning, yet obtaining reliable process labels remains a central bottleneck. Existing approaches typically rely on human annotation, rollout-based estimation, or auxiliary verification. In this work, we explore a different source of process supervision natively exposed by Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models: expert routing. We show that simple routing statistics provide an intrinsic process-confidence signal that is competitive with conventional output-logit confidence. Building on this observation, we construct routing confidence by combining overall routing mass, head routing mass, and within-step routing variation, and introduce RoCo-Rethink, which identifies the least confident reasoning step and selectively regenerates the subsequent trajectory. We further introduce RoCo-PRM, which uses a strong MoE to automatically annotate reasoning trajectories with routing-derived step scores and distills them into a standalone PRM. Across multiple MoE architectures and diverse reasoning tasks, both RoCo-Rethink and RoCo-PRM consistently outperform strong baselines, while RoCo-PRM transfers effectively across both model architectures and tasks. Our findings suggest that expert routing is more than a computational dispatch mechanism: it provides an architecture-native source of process supervision for reasoning.

arXiv:2610.29476v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We propose a new generative modeling framework grounded in forward-backward partial differential equations (PDEs). These equations arise naturally in mean-field game (MFG) theory, and are closely related to nonlinear Schr\"odinger systems. Our main contribution is to reinterpret this connection within the setting of generative modeling and to develop an efficient numerical methodology for its practical implementation. Specifically, we derive and characterize a nonlinear extension of the classical Schr\"odinger bridge problem through a coupled system of PDEs, yielding a model we call SBNL (Schr\"odinger Bridge NonLinear). To compute its solution, we design a simulation algorithm based on branching diffusions and the probabilistic representation of semilinear PDEs. The resulting method is embarrassingly parallel, scalable to high dimensions, and applicable to a broad class of nonlinear interaction functionals. We validate the approach through numerical experiments, including recovery of the classical Schr\"odinger bridge, nonlinear extensions with convex penalties (Gross-Pitaevskii) as well as potential interaction terms, and high-dimensional generative tasks such as image synthesis on the MNIST and FFHQ human face dataset. Furthermore, the same framework embeds score-based generative modeling, diffusion models, and tractable gaussian Schr\"odinger bridges.

arXiv:2610.29472v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) have shown great potential as general-purpose user simulators for interactive systems. Prior studies have demonstrated that training on high-quality data can substantially improve model reasoning and downstream task performance. However, the upper bound of user simulation is still constrained by the model's reasoning paradigm: native chain-of-thought often degenerates into shallow pattern matching and fails to adequately model the behavioral factors underlying real user decisions. In this paper, we propose OmniSimulator, a novel training framework designed to improve the predictive ability of small LLMs for realistic user simulation on short-video platform environments. Specifically, OmniSimulator organizes behavior-oriented reasoning through a structured schema with five dimensions, carefully selects data from real user-behavior scenarios, and introduces a teacher model to generate high-quality reasoning traces under the proposed schema, helping small models learn behavior-relevant reasoning patterns rather than relying on superficial behavioral correlations. Based on this process, we construct 9,881 high-quality training instances from three months of historical interaction trajectories of 200 real users, averaging about 50 distilled examples per user. Experimental results show that OmniSimulator improves the average score of Qwen3-8B by 34.33%, achieves performance competitive with Claude-Sonnet-4.5, and supports smaller-scale, self-hosted deployment. These results suggest that learning structured behavior-oriented reasoning patterns is a promising direction towards scalable and high-fidelity LLM-based user simulation.

arXiv:2610.29458v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Agent harnesses have become a central component of modern agentic systems, shaping how models use tools, manage context, and coordinate long-horizon interaction. Realizing the benefits of these harnesses depends on how effectively the underlying model can make use of them, motivating reinforcement learning directly through the harness. However, existing approaches typically train through a single fixed harness, which can lead to specialization and limited transfer across harness configurations. To address this, we introduce \textbf{Harness Scaling}, a new scaling dimension for agentic RL that extends training from a single harness to diverse execution configurations. Concretely, we construct a factorized harness space, select a compact training subset with balanced factorial coverage, and organize cross-harness training to combine global coverage with controlled variation for the same task. Across multiple benchmarks, model scales, and RL algorithms, Harness Scaling consistently improves generalization to unseen white-box configurations. Moreover, models trained through structured white-box variation transfer effectively to unseen external black-box harnesses, outperforming models trained through a single complex black-box harness. These results establish harness diversity as a meaningful scaling dimension for agentic RL and highlight the importance of how this diversity is organized for cross-harness generalization.

arXiv:2610.29456v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Policy-as-Code (PaC) has emerged as a foundational paradigm in cloud-native systems. However, repairing Rego policies remains challenging due to their strict syntax, declarative semantics, and specific verification requirements. Existing automated program repair (APR) methods are mainly designed for mainstream languages and struggle to accommodate the unique policy logic and repair workflows of Rego. Thus, Rego policy repair remains a manual process driven by trial and error. To address this, we introduce RegoBench, the first automated Rego policy benchmark comprising 1,159 real-world defects, and propose RegoMender, a feedback-guided multi-agent framework. Collaborating via a shared blackboard and an atomic toolkit, RegoMender dynamically executes patching, rewriting, or rolling back, to resolve complex repair scenarios. Evaluated on RegoBench, RegoMender achieves syntactic and test-based semantic success rates of 82.9\% and 77.9\%, respectively, outperforming the strongest baseline by 13.4\%. Unlike other approaches whose performance drops in complex scenarios, RegoMender maintains effectiveness across single-step and chained repair tasks. Furthermore, it generalizes strongly across HCL and SQL and achieves an 86.4\% repair rate on 132 real-world CVE vulnerabilities, proving its robustness and practical utility for security.

arXiv:2610.29413v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Recently, we see a rise in conversational agents as a form of social and emotional support, where disclosure will unfold over time. Yet, current evaluations of these agents typically examine isolated conversational states. In analyses of naturally occurring conversations, disclosure history and current disclosure are confounded which tends to make their effects difficult to isolate. We thus introduce Trajectory-based Disclosure Evaluation (TraDE), an evaluation framework grounded in Social Penetration Theory that utilizes predefined disclosure trajectories and evaluates how preceding disclosure history shapes model behavior under matched current disclosure. Through the use of TraDE, we demonstrate across multiple models and relational behavior benchmarks that responses to disclosures matched on depth can differ depending on the preceding trajectory, particularly in whether models accept or challenge the user's framing. We also observed that these differences track accumulated exposure to deeper disclosure rather than any single moment of vulnerability or the order of disclosures. It also tends to persists for several turns after disclosure returns to shallow levels. For several behaviors, we also demonstrate that models diverge most consistently from human supporters in the Emotional Support Conversation corpus (ESConv) not when users open up but rather when they step back in their disclosure. TraDE thus provides a systematic way to expose history-dependent relational behavior that evaluations of isolated conversational states would otherwise miss.

arXiv:2610.29409v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Promptable segmentation models such as SAM 3 achieve remarkable open-vocabulary performance but require dedicated architectures, large-scale annotation engines, and task-specific training. We ask a different question: can a general-purpose multimodal large language model (MLLM) segment images directly, without an added segmentation head, mask decoder, or training? We present LLMSeg, a training-free pipeline that turns a vision-capable LLM into a text-prompted image segmenter. LLMSeg decomposes segmentation into three LLM-driven stages. First, detect localizes all instances matching a free-form text query and describes their coarse morphology. Next, segment traces each instance using closed periodic B-splines confined to its detected box. These splines define an outer boundary and optional hole loops. Finally, refine iteratively proposes focus boxes around residual errors and retraces confined splines. The process ends when the mask stabilizes or the pass budget is exhausted. The output is a binary mask with inspectable intermediate geometry. We evaluate LLMSeg across ten referring and reasoning segmentation splits (ReasonSeg and RefCOCO/+/g). We also evaluate open-vocabulary instance segmentation (LVIS, COCO, and SA-Co), semantic segmentation, and zero-shot detection (ODinW13 and RF-100VL). With an off-the-shelf Gemini-3.7-Flash backend, LLMSeg is competitive with and often surpasses the specialist SAM 3 model on identical items. It reaches 71.5 cIoU on ReasonSeg val without additional segmentation-specific training. Backend model updates can improve accuracy without retraining the pipeline. The code is available at https://abdullahamdi.com/llmseg .

arXiv:2610.29385v2 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Language models relying on verbalized Chain-of-Thought (CoT) are constrained to token-by-token generation in the language space, where many tokens serve textual coherence rather than core reasoning. This entangles genuine differences in logical trajectories with superficial variations in verbalization. Moving reasoning into a compact, continuous latent space offers a promising alternative for efficiently representing and exploring diverse reasoning trajectories. However, current latent models remain largely deterministic, capturing only a single reasoning trajectory rather than modeling a distribution over multiple valid alternatives. While stochastic approaches parameterize distributions over latent reasoning steps, they frequently suffer from unstable optimization and limited empirical performance. Furthermore, their reliance on autoregressive latent prediction during training precludes effective parallelization, leading to prohibitively long training times. To overcome these bottlenecks, we propose Probabilistic Latent Reasoning Models (PLRM), a parallelizable variational framework for probabilistic latent reasoning. PLRM adopts a JEPA-style objective in which the posterior infers latent distributions in parallel from observed reasoning trajectories, while the prior learns to predict the subsequent latent distribution via teacher forcing. To model heterogeneous reasoning processes, we introduce a discrete strategy variable together with a mixture-based prior, allowing the model to preserve the Gaussian-mixture structure induced by multiple distinct reasoning trajectories rather than collapsing them into a single Gaussian. Across diverse benchmarks, PLRM achieves performance competitive with deterministic latent reasoning models on single-trajectory datasets while enabling efficient training and consistently outperforming competing stochastic baselines on multi-trajectory datasets.

arXiv:2610.29358v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Deep learning based models accurately delineate tumours on dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI), but segmentation masks alone do not provide the rationales or reasoning used by radiologists to assess the lesion suspicion. This limits the explainability as well the clinical integration. We investigate whether clinically relevant descriptors can instead be derived from the segmentation masks and their dynamic contrast-enhancement series. We have used Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) guidelines as a structured framework. Using these guidelines we designed a BI-RADS decision tree with eight quantitative measurements using radiomics, together with the lesion size and component count, that determine the descriptors at eight nodes. Using these descriptors we generate natural-language rationale using a large language model. The model was constrained to express only the derived records from the decision tree. After applying this framework to the expert and automatic masks of each of the 1,506 cases in the MAMA-MIA dataset, we generated a reproducible corpus of 3,012 BI-RADS grounded rationales. We obtained a faithfulness score of 99.98% and a counterfactual accuracy of 99.3%, indicating that the generated rationales faithfully verbalises the measured descriptors and correctly reflects changes in the underlying record. Agreement between the descriptors from expert and automatic masks falls from 0.832 to 0.549 as mask quality falls from Good to Missed. The generated rationales are intended as draft representations for radiologist review and final sign-off rather than autonomous clinical reports.

arXiv:2610.29357v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Autonomous agents powered by foundation models can reason, plan, and use tools, but their fixed weights and context limits hinder sustained learning from experience over long-term deployment. While external memory systems attempt to bridge this gap, they mostly act as passive retrieval caches, evaluated primarily by whether they can recall stored facts or past interactions. Whether memory can drive genuine continual learning remains an open question. In this paper, we introduce Memory-Centric Continual Learning (MCCL), arguing that memory should be judged by whether it improves future actions, not merely what it retrieves. MCCL has three main parts. First, a three-axis taxonomy organizes memory by where state is stored (substrates), what form it takes (assets), and how it is managed (policies). This defines a two-loop lifecycle that updates memory state in an inner loop while refining management policies in an outer loop based on task feedback. Second, an evaluation protocol measures retention under interference, adaptation to change, and task transfer to isolate genuine behavioral gains from simple context expansion. Third, a memory scaling framework models how agent performance scales with experience, storage capacity, and compute budgets across non-parametric and parametric memory. Together, these components reframe agent memory from passive lookup to continuous learning, offering a principled route toward self-improving autonomous agents.

arXiv:2610.29339v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Knowledge graph question generation (KGQG) generates natural-language questions from structured graph evidence and a target answer. When the input graph is temporal, a valid question must also preserve the answer field, time condition, reference event, and temporal order that determine the answer set. Existing KGQG methods and prompting baselines can produce fluent questions that alter these conditions, causing temporal semantic drift. This paper studies temporal KGQG as a constraint-preserving graph-to-question problem and proposes ChronoSynth, a memory-augmented and constraint-aware generation framework. ChronoSynth first constructs a Temporal Intent State to make the intended question semantics explicit. It then retrieves compatible typed question patterns from an indexed pattern memory, adapts them to the input graph, and validates the generated question. Validation feedback guides revisions when a supported inconsistency is detected. Experiments on CRONQUESTIONS and MultiTQ demonstrate state-of-the-art generation performance, with ablations supporting the contributions of its components.

arXiv:2610.29322v2 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Accurate localization of neonatal hypoxic--ischemic encephalopathy (HIE) lesions on apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) images is clinically important but is limited by scarce expert annotations and substantial variation in lesion appearance. We propose OpenMAP-HIE, a pathology-informed score-based diffusion model for unsupervised HIE lesion localization without voxel-wise lesion supervision. A denoising diffusion model learns the healthy neonatal ADC distribution, while a ControlNet-based conditional branch preserves patient-specific anatomy. At inference, anomaly evidence is derived directly from differences between conditional and unconditioned noise predictions at independently evaluated diffusion noise levels, avoiding dependence on a final pseudo-healthy reconstruction or sequential reverse-diffusion chain. Based on the characteristic ADC reduction associated with acute HIE, only discrepancies consistent with the expected pathological direction are retained and aggregated across noise levels using a geometric mean. Spatial mean filtering further suppresses isolated responses. The framework was evaluated on the BONBID-HIE dataset. The ADC-only method achieved a Dice score of $0.283\pm0.244$, average precision of $0.505$, Hausdorff distance of $25.45\pm15.63$ mm, mean average surface distance of $9.40\pm8.49$ mm, and normalized surface distance of $0.355\pm0.236$, providing the best overlap and surface-distance performance among the evaluated unsupervised methods and Dice performance comparable to supervised ADC-only models. Optional population-derived ADC $Z$-map refinement further increased Dice to $0.602\pm0.269$. These findings support pathology-informed score discrepancies as a useful signal for neonatal HIE lesion localization, while highlighting remaining challenges in detecting small and low-contrast lesions.

arXiv:2610.29313v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Multimodal ocean modeling remains challenging due to substantial heterogeneity in data structures, physical semantics, and spatiotemporal characteristics across satellite imagery, gridded oceanographic fields, and buoy observations. Existing approaches largely focus on task-specific ocean modeling, while learning transferable representations from heterogeneous observations remains an open problem. To address this challenge, we propose YingLan, a multimodal ocean foundation model that integrates physics-attribute-conditioned dynamic encoding, Spatiotemporal Increment Coupling (STIC), and ocean-state evolution-aware pretraining. Specifically, the dynamic encoding mechanism generates adaptive input projections conditioned on physical semantics and observation characteristics, enabling flexible representation of heterogeneous ocean variables. STIC models multiscale spatiotemporal dependencies through cross-scale interactions of latent temporal increments. The pretraining strategy further combines masked observation reconstruction with temporal evolution objectives to facilitate the learning of coherent ocean-state representations across different prediction horizons. YingLan is implemented using MindSpore and trained on Huawei Ascend 910B NPUs, demonstrating its compatibility with domestic AI computing infrastructure. In a seven-day sea surface salinity (SSS) forecasting task conducted in the Shenzhen coastal waters, YingLan achieves an average RMSE of 0.687508 PSU, corresponding to relative error reductions of 0.58%, 5.31%, and 12.42% compared with LangYa, XiHe, and GloNet2, respectively. These results provide initial evidence of the model's effectiveness in regional ocean forecasting, while broader cross-task and cross-regional evaluations remain necessary to assess its generalization capabilities.

arXiv:2610.29300v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Heuristic solvers for general-sum extensive-form games produce a stream of iterates, and practice reports the NashGap of the returned profile. We ask what a solver can know about its own iterates from the regret accumulators and the terminal-distribution accumulators its updates already maintain. In two-player games the NashGap of a weighted average strategy equals, at the maximizing player, the weighted external regret plus a signed value correction. Bounding the regret by the running counterfactual-regret accumulator gives an online certificate whose cost per checkpoint is linear in the number of terminal histories. The certificate stays sound under alternating updates and in games with three or more players. The mismatch between what alternation evaluates and what the averages record enters as one signed comparator term, maximized in a single backward pass per player whose comparator weight is nonzero. The bound is read off the regret state, with no best response against the average. Run a portfolio of training-free regret-matching solvers, output the iterate with the smallest certificate, and verify that iterate once. On the benchmark's biased Leduc family a pool of sixteen training-free solvers, seven original and nine recent variants, solves $89\%$ of the $64$ instances at threshold $10^{-5}$ this way, matching the trajectory-minimum union of the solvers. The same protocol solves $92\%$ of the $64$ pre-registered held-out instances and $89\%$ again on a third set of $64$ instances that no earlier stage used. The zero-best-response certificate certifies all $57$ in-sample solves and all $57$ fresh ones, and $58$ of the $59$ held-out ones. Its exact-comparator refinement certifies every solve in the three sets. The certificate states both and attributes its bound. Code is available at https://github.com/lbn187/CertNE.

arXiv:2610.29295v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Finding K most similar elements for a query in a large gallery of neural network (NN) embeddings is essential in various areas of computer science and industrial applications of artificial intelligence. This paper proposes search algorithms for structured latent spaces (LS) of NNs which allow to speed up top K item retrieval owing to O(1) complexity small candidate gallery subset search. ArcFace-pretrained IResNet50 models are finetuned using Latent Space Configuration (LSC) methodology to obtain new distribution of embeddings with desired geometric properties. Applying the proposed algorithms to embeddings obtained from finetuned models leads to several times speed-up over baseline exhaustive search. Specifically, we report up to 3 times speed-up on GPU and 40% speed-up on CPU compared to the baseline method GPU speed. These results are obtained for the original and reduced numbers of LS dimensions. The results show that LS dimensionality reduction allows to further accelerate the search and even improve rank-N metrics.