arXiv AI

arXiv:2603.18712v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The task of multi-channel time series forecasting is ubiquitous in numerous fields such as finance, supply chain management, and energy planning. It is critical to effectively capture complex dynamic dependencies within and between channels for accurate predictions. However, traditional method paid few attentions on learning the interaction among channels. This paper proposes Linear-Network (Li-Net), a novel architecture designed for multi-channel time series forecasting that captures the linear and non-linear dependencies among channels. Li-Net dynamically compresses representations across sequence and channel dimensions, processes the information through a configurable non-linear module and subsequently reconstructs the forecasts. Moreover, Li-Net integrates a sparse Top-K Softmax attention mechanism within a multi-scale projection framework to address these challenges. A core innovation is its ability to seamlessly incorporate and fuse multi-modal embeddings, guiding the sparse attention process to focus on the most informative time steps and feature channels. Through the experiment results on multiple real-world benchmark datasets demonstrate that Li-Net achieves competitive performance compared to state-of-the-art baseline methods. Furthermore, Li-Net provides a superior balance between prediction accuracy and computational burden, exhibiting significantly lower memory usage and faster inference times. Detailed ablation studies and parameter sensitivity analyses validate the effectiveness of each key component in our proposed architecture. Keywords: Multivariate Time Series Forecasting, Sparse Attention Mechanism, Multimodal Information Fusion, Non-linear relationship

arXiv:2603.01092v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Scientific discovery is constrained not only by what is true, but by what is cognitively available to researchers. Many directions are coherent in light of the literature yet unlikely to be proposed because no existing community combines the relevant concepts, methods, and intuitions. Modern language models inherit this bias, recombining high-density regions of the literature when prompted for novel ideas. We target the complementary region, the alien space of science: directions that are scientifically plausible but unlikely under the distribution of existing researchers. Our method decomposes papers into conceptual units and clusters them into a vocabulary of idea atoms. A coherence model scores whether atom combinations form viable research directions, while an availability model scores whether any existing author community is positioned to produce them. We rank combinations to maximize coherence while minimizing availability. On 16,068 peer-reviewed LLM papers from NeurIPS, ICLR, ICML, and major NLP venues, the sampler produces more diverse research portfolios than frontier LLM baselines, including batch-prompted variants that see their entire output, while matching or exceeding their per-idea quality under blind human, LLM, and downstream experimental evaluation. In temporal validation, all components use only pre-2025 data. Selecting less than 1% of the candidate space recovers 2025 combinations at 35.9 times chance; weighting unavailability increases recovery of strictly novel combinations to 3.24 times chance. By separating scientific plausibility from community availability, our framework points toward AI ideation that complements rather than merely accelerates human science, expanding exploration into coherent directions the community may overlook.

arXiv:2602.21889v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Prognostic predictions from ML models support human decision making in several fields, including high-stakes ones such as healthcare and the judiciary. Yet, we still lack a clear understanding of how decision makers learn from ML-based decision support (ML-DS). In this paper, we introduce a general computational framework, the 2-Step Agent, to capture how a prediction from an ML model can also be used as a source of useful information about the training data and the causal mechanism that generated it. Our framework models (i) how a prediction from an ML model affects the beliefs of a rational Bayesian agent, and (ii) how this change in beliefs affects the estimation of the causal effect, the downstream decision for a new observation, and the subsequent outcome. In addition to the framework itself, we make three contributions. First, for the multivariate linear-Gaussian setting, we derive a tractable solution for the Bayesian inference problem introduced, i.e. one in which the agent infers information about a population from an ML prediction. Second, we experimentally identify conditions under which ML-DS is beneficial compared to unassisted decision making. Third, we show that a single misaligned prior belief of the user can be sufficient for ML-DS to lead to worse downstream outcomes compared to no decision support even when the prognostic model is well-specified and the agent is perfectly rational. Hence, even under ideal conditions, ML-DS can do more harm than good.

arXiv:2602.02133v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Autoregressive language models (ARMs) suffer from the reversal curse: after learning ''$A$ is $B$,'' they often fail on the reverse query ''$B$ is $A$.'' Masked diffusion language models (MDMs) exhibit this failure in a much weaker form, but the underlying reason has remained unclear. A common explanation attributes this mitigation to their any-order masked training objective. However, observing ''$[\mathbf{M}]$ is $B$'' during training teaches recovery of $A$ from $B$ in one positional configuration, and does not by itself explain why the learned evidence should transfer to the reverse prompt ''$B$ is $[\mathbf{M}]$.'' We provide a theoretical analysis showing that this transfer arises from a parameter-level coupling between forward and reverse positional conditionals: shared Transformer parameters store token-pair evidence, while relative positional encodings route attention through queries and keys without changing the value-side evidence being retrieved. In a one-layer MDM, we prove that forward masked training strengthens evidence that is reusable in reverse queries, induces correlated forward--reverse attention routes, and yields a positively aligned shared-storage gradient component that decreases the reverse loss to first order. Controlled one-layer experiments and large-scale LLaDA/Dream experiments verify these signatures and show that they translate into improved reverse prediction.

arXiv:2601.15322v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Replaying a financial agent requires specifying the conditions of a rerun, preserving its execution record, and deciding which parts of its behavior to compare. We introduce the Determinism-Faithfulness Assurance Harness (DFAH), a framework and practical protocol for organizing these choices. The framework distinguishes comparisons of final decisions, tool-name sets, and ordered tool names, while treating support from available evidence as a separate evaluation target. We illustrate the framework using 2,957 recorded executions in synthetic compliance-triage and data-operations tasks. One data-operations configuration repeated its recorded decision across all trials on 84% of cases, while its ordered tool-name sequence repeated on 26%. Conversely, some compliance cases retained the same tool sequence while recorded decisions changed. A case-level example shows how repeated labels accompanied different lookups and escalation calls. These observations demonstrate how the comparison level changes the description of repeated behavior. The resulting protocol connects configuration control, preservation of each attempt, comparison of records, and inspection of changed cases. DFAH provides a practical foundation for designing replay experiments and locating execution differences during the development and evaluation of financial agents.

arXiv:2511.19100v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Data sequences, such as time series, traces, and sensor streams, are words over large or infinite data domains. Their properties often depend on comparisons between values at different positions, which finite automata cannot express directly. We study synthesis and verification for Deterministic Register Automata (DRAs) over ordered data sequences. DRAs combine finite control with registers for remembered data values, providing compact symbolic descriptions of quantitative sequence languages. Our technical core is a local-search synthesis procedure and an exact robustness checker for DRAs. We fix the alphabet theory to ordered rationals $(\Q;<,=)$ with rational guard constants and use non-negative affine accumulator costs. For a fixed number of DRA registers, the checker runs in polynomial time; its dependence on that number is exponential. It reduces robustness to coverability and then to a shortest-path problem. Since the search ranges over $\Q^+$, it produces variable-length witnesses and, for RAA-definable alignment costs such as DTW, explores a counterexample space with no a priori length bound. As an application, we use learned DRAs as interpretable surrogates for queried neural sequence classifiers. A probably approximately correct (PAC) validation loop refines rejected candidates, returns genuine non-robustness witnesses for the classifier when found, and accepts a surrogate only with statistical guarantees for fidelity and local stability. We implement the framework in $\textsc{RAExc}$, enabling the synthesis of interpretable automata and the verification of their robustness. We evaluate the approach on benchmark languages and sequentialized MNIST, demonstrating high accuracy while verifying the robustness of the learned automata.

arXiv:2511.14130v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Deploying LLMs for financial information retrieval demands accuracy, cost efficiency, and reproducibility, yet most approaches require expensive fine-tuning. PRISM is a training-free framework that composes three deployable modules (prompt engineering, in-context learning, and a candidate refinement module) with a boundary-condition study of multi-agent coordination for financial document retrieval. On FiQA-2018, stacked reranking and $k$-reciprocal encoding raise Recall@100 from 0.7783 to 0.8326. On FinAgentBench, a Cohere-refined top-50 pool yields a higher observed end-to-end NDCG@5, below this evaluation's minimum detectable effect, while cutting per-query cost by about 35%. Added complexity does not always pay off: $k$-reciprocal encoding stops helping once the upstream stage is already high-recall, and multi-agent coordination is not a default for fine-grained chunk ranking. Matched pairs that hold prompt, model, and exemplars fixed lose 0.0702 and 0.0681 combined NDCG@5 to their single-path controls, and the whole gap sits at the chunk stage. We release an expert-annotated FinAgentBench evaluation set, together with a label-robustness sweep over 16 alternative ground-truth constructions, restoring a reproducible evaluation path after the original evaluator went offline. Without fine-tuning, PRISM placed third on the official FinAgentBench private leaderboard (leaderboard basis, NDCG@5 0.71181), reaches NDCG@10 0.6197 on FiQA-2018, and 98% accuracy on FinanceBench. We report per-query latency, token, and dollar accounting across roughly 40 configurations, present the quality-cost-latency Pareto frontier, and introduce FACET, a transparent SLA-specific scalarization for choosing among non-dominated configurations. Code and dataset are released at https://bit.ly/prism-ailens.

arXiv:2504.07635v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The integration of Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) within the Internet of Things (IoT) is garnering considerable interest. This growing attention stems from the continuous evolution and widespread adoption they are both having individually, enough to spontaneously reshape numerous sectors, including Healthcare, Manufacturing, and Smart Cities. Hence, their increasing popularity has catalyzed further extensive research for understanding the potential of the duo GenAI-IoT, how they interplay, and to which extent their synergy can innovate the state-of-the-art in their individual scenarios. However, despite the increasing prominence of GenAI for IoT Computing, much of the existing research remains focused on specific, narrowly scoped applications. This fragmented approach highlights the need for a more comprehensive analysis of the potential, challenges, and implications of GenAI integration within the broader IoT ecosystem. This survey exactly aims to address this gap by providing a holistic overview of the opportunities, issues, and considerations arising from the convergence of these mainstream paradigms. Our contribution is realized through a systematic literature review following the PRISMA methodology. A comparison framework is presented, and well-defined research questions are outlined to comprehensively explore the past, present, and future directions of GenAI integration with IoT Computing, offering valuable insights for both experts and newcomers.

arXiv:2610.30128v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Existing sequential recommenders usually allocate a fixed computational budget to every item in a user's interaction history, regardless of the item's contribution to the final prediction. We challenge this de facto design with two diagnostic findings. (1) Non-uniform computational need: items within the same sequence vary drastically in how much computation they require. Most converge after shallow processing while a critical minority only stabilizes at full depth. (2) Suboptimality of fixed allocation: given oracle access to the target item, a non-uniform depth assignment consistently outranks the fixed one, indicating that existing uniform computation both wastes capacity on already-converged items and sacrifices overall recommendation quality. These observations motivate a shift from fixed-depth computation to item-level adaptive reasoning. To this end, we propose LoopRec. LoopRec recursively applies a single weight-shared block and introduces a lightweight gate at each recursion boundary that makes a binary exit-or-continue decision for every item independently. Items whose representations have sufficiently matured exit early, while those requiring deeper reasoning continue to subsequent recursions. This design converts the fixed global depth into a learned, per-item property without auxiliary depth labels, and is readily adaptable to diverse backbone architectures. Extensive experiments on public benchmarks with four backbone families demonstrate that LoopRec consistently outperforms matched fixed-depth counterparts. Further analysis reveals that LoopRec's learned allocation exhibits interpretable patterns aligned with our post-hoc oracle analysis: lower-frequency items and more recent interactions naturally receive deeper computation. Our code is available at https://github.com/Elpmis117/LoopRec.

arXiv:2610.30125v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Existing world models typically perceive a scene through current visual frame or a narrow history window. However, these observations may not reveal the physics properties that determine transition dynamics, such as an object's mass distribution, joint damping, or surface friction. Without calibrating these physics factors for world models, predictions tend to regress toward an empirical prior and induce severe drift in novel test scenes. To this end, we propose PhysiCalWorld, which calibrates action-conditioned world models to the instance-specific dynamics via in-context prompting, without fine-tuning or analytical physics modeling. Our method encodes an exploratory interaction clip collected within the test scene into a compact physics descriptor token, which grounds subsequent predictions in the scene's actual physical behavior. PhysiCalWorld is trained end-to-end with the latent prediction loss alone, without physics labels. At inference time, the descriptor token is extracted once and can be reused across rollouts with negligible compute overhead. We evaluate PhysiCalWorld across four environments covering diverse physics variations and show that it substantially improves rollout prediction accuracy and visual planning success rate. The learned descriptors also form a physically structured latent space and generalize beyond the physics ranges seen during training.

arXiv:2610.30116v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Through a tangle of real-world interactions, from synthetic training pipelines to data shared on the open web, frontier LLMs absorb what their predecessors and competitors create. How well does each model play its role in this ecosystem, as a creator and as a solver? We introduce Environment Duels, a dynamic agentic benchmark that evaluates both capabilities on interactive environments. Each model writes environments, each with a privileged hint, aiming for tasks that capable solvers fail without the hint and pass with it. Across nine frontier LLMs, solving and authoring prove to be distinct skills: the strongest solvers are not the strongest authors, while smaller models learn more from how others played and write the hardest environments and the most useful hints. Beyond the scores, the pairwise interactions form a microcosm of how models affect one another. Head-to-head outcomes are transitive and so yield a stable ranking; independent authors converge on the same designs; and in a reinforcement-learning study with Qwen3.8-27B, the learner's hint lift on an author's environments tracks how much training on those environments improves it on held-out reasoning and agentic benchmarks, whether the environments are its own or another model's. Each of these patterns has a counterpart in how models shape one another outside the duel. By staging these interactions under controlled conditions, Environment Duels offers a window onto how LLMs teach, challenge and learn from one another. Code is available at https://github.com/LLM-Duels/EnvDuels.

arXiv:2610.30114v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Consensus is a fundamental problem in distributed computing and at the core of state machine replication (SMR). Despite decades of active human research, discovering practical low-latency solutions to the problem is still open, as it requires combining protocol knowledge, correctness reasoning, implementation, and experimental evaluation. We report on how AI helped us discover A-greement, a new consensus protocol for geo-replicated state machines that significantly outperforms state-of-the-art solutions. Averaged across six deployments with 5 or 9 replicas, A-greement reduces the mean latency of a geo-distributed key-value store over the fastest baseline by 12.2% and 33.3% on write-heavy and read-heavy workloads, respectively, and matches the fastest baseline on read-only workloads. A-greement combines lease-authorized local reads, direct client learning for leader-ordered writes, and a fast fixed-quorum per-key write path, selected according to network topology and workload. At the heart of our discovery lies AI-greement, an agent harness for the "autonomous" discovery, implementation, experimentation, and verification of candidate protocols. AI-greement integrates (1) a concept-oriented protocol knowledge base, (2) a modular implementation skeleton, and (3) a Lean-based verification framework with reusable safety definitions, reference specifications, and proofs. AI-greement is of independent interest: its Lean formalization uncovers several previously unreported vulnerabilities in existing consensus protocols, and it provides guidelines on how domain-specific harnesses can turn general-purpose coding agents into effective tools for (distributed) computing research. Yet we argue that human consensus experts remain essential before, during, and after the search: agents reshape the researcher's role rather than end consensus research.

arXiv:2610.30113v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Quantitative research is an iterative loop: a researcher proposes a market hypothesis, implements it as an executable signal, tests it on historical data, and decides what to keep. Existing benchmarks score formulas, code, or individual trading decisions, leaving open whether large language models (LLMs) can complete this loop and produce strategies that work beyond the research period. We introduce Quant-Arena, a benchmark and public leaderboard for end-to-end quantitative research on real A-share market data. A model constructs features and stock-scoring code, receives feedback only on 2022--2023, and freezes one strategy for assessment on the sealed year 2024. A cash-account evaluator applies trading constraints and costs, including market impact estimated from a simulated order book. Scores are dominated by realized excess return and complemented by signal quality and the diversity of features used by the strategy. We evaluate nine frontier models, among which GPT-6 Astra scores highest; yet no model beats the equal-weight market in 2024. Quant-Arena is open to submissions from any model or agent harness.

arXiv:2610.30108v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Multimodal agents (MMAs) sustain interaction through reasoning, memory, tools, and feedback, most visibly as computer-use agents, while robotic systems (RSs) couple sensing and actuation under physical dynamics. We define multimodal embodied agents (MMEAs) as goal-directed systems that couple multimodal task reasoning with physical action and revise decisions from the resulting feedback. This raises a central question: what changes when a multimodal agent moves from computer-use to robot-use? We introduce PAPAV, a unified capability-centric framework of five recurring functions: Perceive the current state, Anticipate action effects, Plan a feasible course, Act through an interface or body, and Verify the outcome. Defined by function rather than architecture, these capabilities let PAPAV identify what all three share and then compare MMEAs with MMAs and with RSs. Five physical constraints, from partial observability to unverifiable outcomes, leave fewer choices fixed in advance and less room to reverse errors. Across 64 benchmarks, explicit evaluation centers on Act; only 5 assess Anticipate and 3 assess Verify, leaving both largely hidden behind task success. These constraints also frame the open challenges we identify. PAPAV therefore provides a common basis for designing reliable physical agents and measuring progress across all five capabilities rather than task success alone.

arXiv:2610.30105v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Sequential decision-making under partial observability is difficult because agents must explore to infer hidden, task-relevant information before acting effectively. Learning such information-gathering behaviors tabula rasa via online reinforcement learning is sample-inefficient, whereas offline imitation averages expert actions across hidden states and fails to learn exploration. In this work, we propose ASTEROID, a simple and effective student--teacher supervised learning framework that can learn test-time exploration. Although a privileged expert never needs to explore, we demonstrate that a history-conditioned student can learn to do so when trained with on-policy contexts: the student first collects on-policy context under partial observability, and the privileged expert provides action labels conditioned on that context. By distilling expert actions directly conditioned on the student's on-policy history, the student learns to systematically resolve partial observability, i.e., search while uncertain and exploit once the hidden state is revealed. This enables efficient test-time exploration (similar to Bayesian posterior sampling) without incurring the impractical training-data costs of reinforcement learning. Across a diverse range of eleven different environments, including discrete exploration benchmarks, robotic manipulation, navigation, and Procgen environments, ASTEROID achieves ~2x higher returns under fixed exploration budgets, uses ~100x fewer interactions than RL baselines, and outperforms frontier models at exploration. Finally, our method transfers policies trained in simulation to vision-denied real-world robot manipulation, exhibiting efficient exploration and increasing success by +40% over standard distillation. Overall, it provides a simple yet surprisingly effective framework to learn efficient test-time exploration.

arXiv:2610.30104v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Despite recent advances, current AI systems remain highly susceptible to domain shifts, particularly in biomedical imaging, where images are usually acquired under substantially different experimental conditions. Although recent domain adaptation methods have made substantial progress, significant performance gaps under domain shift persist. To measure progress in this regard, we introduce BatchBench, a leaderboard that evaluates and compares the robustness of AI systems on biomedical images from unseen experimental batches and data sources. BatchBench is built on JUMP-CP, one of the largest publicly available biomedical imaging datasets. Generated using the Cell Painting assay, JUMP-CP exhibits pronounced batch effects and domain shifts, making it a challenging testbed for evaluating robustness to distributional changes.

arXiv:2610.30099v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Reinforcement Learning with Human Feedback (RLHF) has become a central paradigm for aligning Large Language Models with human values. However, the reliance on sensitive preference data necessitates rigorous differential privacy (DP) guarantees to prevent user information leakage. Existing private alignment methods typically assume dense reward parameterizations, resulting in estimation error bounds that scale polynomially with the ambient {model size $d$}. Such dependence is prohibitive in modern {overparameterized models} where $d$ is vast. In this work, we study \emph{Private Sparse RLHF} problem to address this limitation, assuming that human preferences (reward model) are governed by a subset of $s^* \ll d$ relevant features. We provide the first comprehensive theoretical framework for differentially private sparse reward estimation from pairwise preference feedback under the Bradley-Terry-Luce model, and introduce efficient algorithms for both Sample-DP and Label-DP settings. Theoretically, under the squared $\ell_2$ parameter estimation error, we establish upper bounds of $\widetilde{O}(s^*/n + {s^*}^2/n^2\varepsilon^2)$ for $(\varepsilon,\delta)$-Sample-DP and $\widetilde{O}(s^*/n + s^*/n\varepsilon^2)$ for $\varepsilon$-Label-DP based on randomized response, where $n$ is the training data size. For the lower bounds, we show that the Sample-DP rate is nearly optimal, and that the guarantee for our Label-DP method cannot be further improved within the randomized-response framework. We also provide a general lower bound for the problem with Label-DP. Empirically, our framework demonstrates superior efficacy over dense baselines across sentiment generation and safety alignment benchmarks, offering a significantly more favorable privacy-utility trade-off.

arXiv:2610.30097v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Vision-language-action (VLA) models have shown promise in robotic manipulation, but imitation learning (IL) alone often struggles to master complex long-horizon skills. Reinforcement learning (RL) offers an effective avenue for further improving VLA policies. However, existing VLA-RL methods typically suffer from delayed and biased credit assignment due to trajectory-level sparse rewards, while imbalanced subtask mastery creates bottlenecks that limit overall performance. To address these challenges, we propose AtomicRL, an RL post-training framework that leverages atomic task structures for reliable credit assignment and adaptive exploration. AtomicRL introduces Semantic-Aware Policy Optimization (SAPO), which uses semantic-aware gating to constrain TD residuals from failed atomic subtasks from propagating across task boundaries, mitigating credit contamination while preserving intra-subtask credit assignment and value bootstrapping. In addition, Bottleneck-Adaptive Target Exploration (BATE) dynamically coordinates task sampling and local exploration incentives based on the mastery of individual atomic subtasks, directing learning toward the remaining bottlenecks. Finally, we develop a Real2Sim2Real pipeline that bridges online RL in simulation with real-world deployment, facilitating practical transfer to physical robots. On LIBERO-LONG, AtomicRL achieves absolute performance gains of 3.6% and 4.0% over PPO across two VLA architectures. On CALVIN ABC-D, it improves full-task performance by up to 9.5% over PPO. Combined with the Real2Sim2Real pipeline, AtomicRL further improves real-world task performance by an average of 21.3%. These results demonstrate that AtomicRL effectively improves the learning efficiency and manipulation performance of VLA policies on long-horizon tasks.

arXiv:2610.30074v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Parallel AI agents can produce useful local edits yet degrade a shared solution when their edits are combined. We model this coordination problem as discrete block optimization with an exactly evaluable objective and a known dependency graph. Independent sets certify compatible edits whose verified gains, measured against the same current solution, add exactly. A coordinator constructs a safe compatible candidate and can also evaluate interacting edits to capture favorable interactions. We prove that an optimal fractional coloring yields a merger that preserves a $1/\chi_f(G)$ fraction of the total verified local improvement, where $\chi_f(G)$ is the graph's fractional chromatic number. This guarantee is tight among mergers that select a subset of the same proposals. Under conditional local-improvement guarantees and a block error-bound condition, repeated collaboration converges geometrically in the objective gap. The rate separates task structure, agent allocation, and computation cost, yielding a linear program for agent assignment and an explicit time-cost trade-off. Code-repair experiments show that verified merging resolves conflicts between individually useful edits that cause naive merging to fail. On larger conflict-free tasks, parallel agents reduce modeled completion time at higher input-token-equivalent cost. On three public road networks, fractional integration retains 922 units of verified graph-cut improvement across 90 paired runs. For route-search agents sharing exclusive access to vehicle routes, fractional scheduling reduces measured wall time by a median of 15% across twelve paired runs, with route-cost changes varying across runs.

arXiv:2610.30051v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Recent advances in frontier AI models have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in visual understanding, reasoning, planning, and tool use, raising the possibility of using general-purpose AI models for robot manipulation without task-specific training. However, their manipulation capabilities have not been systematically evaluated on standardized robotics benchmarks. In this report, we present a unified closed-loop manipulation framework for evaluating frontier AI models on the LIBERO-10 benchmark. Our framework enables models to control a robot directly through visual observations, robot proprioception, and structured tool calls, primarily by specifying target end-effector poses and gripper commands, without task-specific fine-tuning or pretrained manipulation skills. We evaluate six frontier AI models, including GPT-6 Astra, GPT-6.1 Sol, GPT-6 Luna, Claude Opus 5, Claude Opus 5.5, and Gemini-4 Argon, across three reasoning effort levels, resulting in 18 configurations and 1,800 evaluation episodes. Our results show that GPT-6 Astra achieves the highest success rate of 44%, followed by Gemini-4 Argon at 43%. Increasing reasoning effort generally improves manipulation performance, but the benefits vary across models and come at additional inference cost. We also observe substantial differences across tasks, with models performing relatively well on object placement tasks but struggling with precise spatial arrangements and complex multi-step interactions. These findings demonstrate both the potential and limitations of frontier AI models for robot manipulation, highlighting the challenges of translating reasoning capabilities into reliable physical actions. We release our evaluation framework and experimental results to support reproducible benchmarking and future research on reasoning-based robot manipulation.